International Journal of Applied Science and Technology

ISSN 2221-0997 (Print), 2221-1004 (Online) 10.30845/ijast

Estimating the Impact of the Cocoa Hi-Tech and Mass Spraying Programmes on Cocoa Production in Ghana: An Application of Intervention Analysis
F.T Oduro, Maurice Omane-Adjepong

Using the intervention time series analysis of Box and Tiao, this paper presents an estimate of the level and nature of impact of the national mass spraying and the cocoa hi-technology Government intervention programmes, implemented in 2002 and 2003 respectively, on cocoa production in Ghana. An annual time series cocoa production data covering the period from 1948 to 2011 was obtained from the Monitoring, Research and Evaluation Department of Ghana’s COCOBOD. Results from the study indicate that the preintervention period could best be modeled with an AR(1) process. The effects of both intervention programmes were found to be abrupt and permanent. The impact of the mass spraying programme was estimated to have had a significant increase of 182,398.2 metric tonnes. It was also found that the cocoa hi-technology programme significantly increased production by 266,515.1 metric tonnes per annum.

Full Text: PDF