Integration of Rural Insurance Data with Agricultural Zoning Data in Climate Risk Analysis: Case Study in Southern Brazil
Luciana Justina da Silva, Anselmo Chaves Neto, Gilson Martins

Abstract
This paper presents a model to integrate agricultural zoning data into insurance risk analyses, focusing on the Southern region of Brazil. The methodology uses information from the Agricultural Zoning of Climatic Risk (ZARC) and insurance data provided by the Ministry of Agriculture, converting them into distributional variables for a Bayesian model. This allows detailed risk assessments, considering optimistic and pessimistic scenarios based on soil data from ZARC. These scenarios are combined with insurance information to generate more accurate risk distributions. The method allows for the comparison of risks between municipalities and agricultural crops, such as soybean and wheat, contributing to a robust risk classification in the Southern region. The proposed approach can significantly improve risk management in the agricultural sector, benefiting insurance companies, government and private agencies.Future studies could extend this methodology to conduct comparative analyses among insurance providers, assess risk dynamics in structured credit and insurance operations, and evaluate agricultural risks at the farm level. In a broader context, this research contributes to the development of a robust analytical framework that enhances risk assessment and supports more informed decision-making in the agricultural sector.

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