Design of an Innovative Probability Plotting Position For a 73 Year Precipitation Data (1940-2012) of El Paso County, Texas, U.S.A
Héctor Adolfo Quevedo, Abraham López, Iván Alvarado
Abstract
This research established a tridimensional probability plotting position, as a function of annual precipitation
data, probability of occurrence and return periods. The study determined the gamma distribution to be the most
suitable one fitting the data, using the Minitab computer program based on the value of the Anderson-Darling
test, which turned out to be 0.271. Afterwards, this method constructed a probability graph going as a function of
precipitation values, probability of occurrence and return periods. This novelty approach has an advantage over
the traditional plotting positions methods, because it first identifies the right probability distribution and, on that
graph constructs a probability plotting position, as a function of precipitation data, probability of occurrence and
return periods. This task was done without relying on the traditional assigning of ranges to the data (that not
always follow the normal distribution), and the use of empirical formulas. It is concluded that this approach is
more precise and reliable than the traditional plotting positions methods, because it determines optimum
estimates for return periods and occurrence probabilities that helps in the construction of prime hydraulic
projects.
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