Estimation of Failure Probability in Corroded Oil Pipelines through Monte Carlo Simulation Method Applying the Bootstrap Technique
Isabella Andreczevski Chaves, Roberto Dalledone Machado, Anselmo Chaves Neto

Abstract
This paper discusses the method of structural reliability analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation by applying the Bootstrap technique. The application of Monte Carlo method requires sample generation of random variables corresponding to strength characteristics and load of structural system for calculating the limit state equation. In this particular case, the probability distributions of some random variables involved are unknown. Therefore, the generation of random samples of distributions, in which Monte Carlo method is based on becomes infeasible. Thus, it was applied the Bootstrap technique in order to estimate the real sampling distribution of the statistical failure probability. By the Bootstrap distribution, it was estimated the failure probability by point and interval. The study has been applied in two real runs of equipment known as PIG Palito used in pipeline transportation of oil, gas and derivatives. It was obtained as a result, the failure probability pf, in each run as well as the corresponding confidence interval percentile Bootstrap.

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