Time Series Analysis of United States of America Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Importations from Saudi Arabia
Olayan Muflih M. Albalawi, Ayed Rheal A. Alanzi

Abstract
This study focuses the time series modeling of Saudi Arabian petroleum and its products importations by United States of America. This information which contains 505 observations of importations from Saudi Arabia by the United States of America on monthly basis from the first month of the year 1973 to the first month of 2015 and this information have been obtained from U.S. Energy Information Administration websites. Developing an appropriate model of time series for forecasting future value of this particular series happens to be the main objective of this study. The values up to December 2003 are taken for model building and observation from January 2004 to January 2015 is taken for model validation. Exponential smoothing techniques and Box-Henkin ARIMA techniques are used for this purpose. The accuracy of the fitted values is evaluated using model diagnostics methods and comparing the predicted values with observed values.

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